Some weeks ago, I went to a Zoom call organised by RISE and People Before Profit, an Irish leftwing political party. I was the only one on the call not in Ireland but did introduce myself as a member of the large Irish diaspora, many of whom were forced to leave the country over the last 5 decades because of the actions of the Fianna Fail-Fine Gael duopoly who have ruled Ireland for the last century. The meeting was called about the Irish presidential election and the support of several Left parties for the radical candidate, Catherine Connolly.

Much was made of the fact that the President, while being the head of state, does not hold much political power but the fact remains that the outgoing President, the leftwing poet, Michael D Higgins (who is hugely popular and has served two seven year terms) became an outspoken critic of Israel and a critical voice on the government’s disastrous housing policy. Higgins has been attacked on a number of occasions by the press allied with the government parties, proving himself a real thorn in their side. The meeting made the point, that for them, the central issue was Irish neutrality, which is being heavily debated at present and that Connolly is the Pro Neutrality candidate. This is in the light of the government’s desperate efforts to push Ireland away from its traditional stance of neutrality to being closer to NATO and possible future involvement in the war in Ukraine.

I raised the issue at the meeting about what would happen if Sinn Fein (the largest Leftwing party) put forward a candidate, thus splitting the Left vote. The People Before Profit T.D (MP) Paul Murphy, who was chairing the meeting suggested that this would be no major threat to Connolly’s chances as it was a PR election and there would be transfers between the two. Connolly had been backed by most of the parties of the Left apart from People Before Profit – the Social Democrats, the Irish Labour Party and later the Greens. The other main argument at the meeting was that Connolly winning the presidency would be a major victory for the Left and one in the eye for the right-wing Fianna Fail-Fine Gael government and a stepping stone towards the Left winning the next general election. I also raised the fact that many Irish citizens (those living in the North of Ireland and abroad) are disenfranchised in this election and that the Irish government had promised after the last presidential election (7 years ago) that it would be the last election where these groups would be excluded.

Government candidates

Shortly after this, the two government parties selected their candidates. Fine Gael chose the experienced politician and ex minister, Heather Humphries, about whom more later. Fianna Fail went for the populist choice of Jim Gavin, the former manager of the Dublin Gaelic football team and someone with no political background whatsoever. He has already shown himself to be out of his depth in the first presidential debate but unsurprisingly is ahead in the polls among older men, many of whom have an abiding interest in football. Gavin was also an air force officer and thus carries a macho aura as sports figure and soldier.

Humphreys hails from the border county of Monaghan and is unusual in being a Protestant. However, two Irish presidents, including the first President (Douglas Hyde) were Protestants and it has never been an issue. Much more problematic is her role in the earlier Fine Gael government where she pushed for a very harsh policy on benefits for disabled people which became very controversial.

The proposals in the green paper included a tiered allowance which would link the level of payments to a determination on capacity to work and the nature of the disability. Disability activists said the plans were a “degrading and humiliating” value judgment that would give the impression that some people were falsifying the extent of their impairment or illness. Her Green Paper on disability benefits was described as a “cut and paste” of a “very discredited austerity measure” in the UK called the workplace capacity assessment.

These are the calibre of candidates which the government parties are putting up against Catherine Connolly.

Radical change

The situation changed radically last week in Connolly’s favour when Sinn Fein announced that instead of standing a candidate themselves, which they have usually done, they were giving their full support to Connolly. This was further enhanced last weekend when she appeared at a Sinn Fein conference to rapturous applause and stated that she had always supported a united Ireland. So, for the first time in decades, the entire Irish Left is united behind one candidate, and this has transformed the election. It has also led to a bitter attack on Connolly by the government aligned press and much of the Irish media, particularly on the issue of Palestine.

Connolly has a long political pedigree having originally been a Labour TD for Galway but later standing as an Independent. For this and several other reasons she is despised by the right-wing section of the Labour Party, who were outvoted in giving her the party’s backing. Connolly held the position of Leas Ceann Comhairle (Deputy Speaker) of the Dail, a position which earned her a lot of respect. She is also unique in being the only candidate who speaks fluent Irish. This could become significant in the election campaign with a strong and growing Irish language movement and as the Irish historian Diarmaid Ferriter, recently pointed out, the President is expected to carry out some duties in the Irish language, which is the official first language of the state and to have a good knowledge of it. Connolly uses this to her advantage often beginning and ending her speeches in Irish and used it effectively in the first presidential debate with the other candidates where they were left looking speechless!

The nomination process for candidates in the Irish presidential election is quite Byzantine and means that a candidate must either be nominated by a select number of TDs or by several local authorities. With the government parties controlling most local authorities, it has proven impossible for any independent candidates (other than Connolly) to stand this time, and this election has the smallest number of candidates (three) in many years of presidential elections. The Far Right had hoped that Conor Mc Gregor, the Irish boxer and Trump adjacent pub owner, would be their candidate but he failed to get nominated. Another ultra conservative candidate also failed to be nominated.

Polls

Opinion polls suggest that at present Humphreys is the favourite, but Connolly leads among youth and many women. There is a feeling that the supporters of the Far Right may well abstain in this election though they are a relatively small demographic. The main attacks on Connolly so far have been over Gaza and in particular her criticism of Starmer’s view that Hamas can play no role in the governing of Gaza. Connolly, quite rightly, stated that it was not the right of a British Prime Minister or anyone else to tell a colonised people who should be their government. The right-wing media and government parties predictably in tones of shock and horror accused her of being a Hamas apologist but she stood her ground. In Ireland where the Israeli embassy closed because of the pro-Palestine stance of the Irish people and identification with a group who are also victims of British imperialism, this may well stand Connolly in good stead.

Connolly has already performed well in the first televised debate, but political minefields lie ahead, particularly her defence of Irish neutrality where the war in Ukraine will be used against her and the government candidates will likely argue for more involvement with NATO. This is particularly likely to come from Gavin with his military background. However, with a young enthusiastic team of supporters and the combined forces of Sinn Fein, PBP and other parties she stands a good chance of upsetting the applecart and following in the footsteps of poet politician Michael D Higgins.

A victory for Connolly would be a huge shot in the arm for the parties of the Left and progressive forces in Ireland. She is also likely to be the Irish President who would argue most forcefully for the ending of partition and the reunification, after a century of British occupation, of Ireland.