Up until now Caerffili/Caerphilly has largely been known for its cheese, its magnificent Norman castle and, for those of us more advanced in years, the birthplace of comedian (and magician) Tommy Cooper, whose statue in the town centre is a well known meeting place for people. Cooper’s catch-phrase ‘Just Like That’ has a certain resonance in relation to last week’s Senedd byelection in Caerffili which ‘just like that’ dealt a massive blow to Labour (expected) and less predictably to Reform UK.

The by-election, caused by the death of Labour MS (Member of the Senedd) Hefin David was probably the last to be fought under First Past the Post before next year’s elections to an expanded Senedd which will be contested under the D’Hondt system, the least democratic system of proportional representation but marginally better than FPTP.

The seat was won by Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle with 15,961 votes (47% of the votes cast) who comfortably beat Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell (12,113, 36%). Whittle was a well known local councillor who had tried several times, unsuccessfully, to win the seat.

Disaster for Labour

The result was an unmitigated disaster for Labour who finished a very poor third(3.713 votes, 11% – a massive drop from the 46% won 4 years ago). This is the first time since 1918 that Labour has failed to win Caerffili, either as a Westminster or Senedd seat. They even held the seat in the 1930s when Labour was reduced to a tiny rump at Westminster so the scale of the defeat can’t be overstated. Keir Starmer was criticised for not visiting Caerffili but I suspect if he had done so Labour’s vote would have fallen even further, such is the hostility to the Labour governments in Westminster and Cardiff.

The only consolation for Labour is that the Tories performed even worse, reduced to 2% of the vote. On those figures neither Labour and  especially the Tories can guarantee a single seat in the Senedd next year. The D’Hondt system may be (roughly) proportional but only if you get more than 11% of the vote. Below that you are likely to be wiped out.

Although most other sources claimed the by-election was a 2 horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform some Labour politicians argued that it was a contest between them and Reform which simply showed how out of touch they were with feelings on the ground. Failures by Labour governments at both Westminster and Cardiff Bay levels (2 child benefits limit, Winter Fuel Allowance, the shocking state of the NHS in Cymru, failure to improve the education system, the widely held view that politicians are all corrupt and the failure by Eluned Morgan’s government in Cardiff to distance themselves from even the worst aspects of Starmer’s austerity measures) combined with some local issues such as library closures in some of the villages around Caerffili to turn people away from a Labour Party they had only just voted for in large numbers in 2024.

To make matters worse Pat McFadden, supposedly one of the masterminds of Starmer’s ‘landslide’ victory announced that Labour would never step down, even if that led to Reform winning a seat. Since it was perfectly obvious by then that  the election was between Plaid Cymru and Reform McFadden’s inability to ‘read the runes’ simply drove more people away from Labour, fortunately mainly towards Plaid Cymru.

Reform’s failure

Reform won a bit more than a third of the vote, increasing their share from 2% in 2021 to 36%. In most cases that would be seen as a massive achievement. So why do I think that the result was a significant defeat for Reform?  Because they were convinced they were going to win. You could still buy tickets for their ‘Victory Party’ while the count was taking place, such was their confidence.Local bookies were still predicting a Reform win as the polls closed.

Reform UK put every effort into winning the seat. Nigel Farage visited Caerffili 3 or 4 times during the campaign and spent the whole of polling day in the town – though by the time the result was announced he had disappeared. Richard Tice, Zia Yusuf and other leading lights also spent time campaigning. Large amounts of money were channelled into their campaign by their millionaire backers. There isn’t the slightest doubt in my mind that Reform expected to win and by a significant margin. That’s why Llŷr Powell didn’t give a speech after the results were announced. It’s not compulsory for defeated candidates to speak but it is highly unusual, especially for the candidate who comes second, to not make a speech. Powell was so shocked he simply couldn’t even acknowledge his defeat.

Reform UK also failed to ‘read the runes’. Even though Caerffili has the smallest number of immigrants in Cymru (over 97% of the [population were born in the UK) they couldn’t resist racist comments, including during the televised debate where Powell was roundly condemned by a migrant woman who pointed out (passionately) her contribution to society and the very real threats her son faced. She not only won the support of the audience but also the local media of all descriptions.

Because Caerffili is so homogenous and there aren’t boat loads of refugees landing on the coast of Cymru or rowing up the Rhymney river to reach the town (even in the most fevered imaginations) Reform tried a different approach. They lambasted the Welsh government for their declaration that Cymru/Wales is a ‘Nation of Sanctuary’. Despite any evidence Reform claimed that this meant that large numbers of ‘asylum seekers’ were attracted to Wales because they would be given everything they wanted by the government in Cardiff Bay.

This was a cynical misrepresentation of what the ‘Nation of Sanctuary’ policy actually means. People were told that it meant taking away resources from local people when 85% of its funding has gone to Ukrainian refugees to help with their integration into Caerffili life. 85% has gone to help people fleeing bombs, fleeing invasion, and children dealing with trauma. The rest has mainly gone to Afghan refugees to help them overcome the trauma of fleeing the Taliban.

Local Ukrainian women played an important role

The women of the small Ukrainian community played an important role in combatting the lies of Reform. As Yulia Bond, one of the most outspoken women of the Ukrainian community explained in Nation.Cymru the day after the election when they tried to report ‘leaflets full of hate, fear and disinformation’ to the Electoral Commission, the Returning Officer, the Police they were ‘passed around like a problem nobody wanted to own’.

The willingness of the Ukrainian women to speak out did eventually win them support from other groups, for which they are deeply grateful. But as Yulia points out ‘let’s be honest: it should never fall on vulnerable communities to fight national disinformation campaigns. That’s the job of the state, the media and every institution that claims to defend democracy’.

She goes on to say that we need to stop pretending that disinformation targeting refugees and asylum seekers is just a political issue. As she points out it is also a safety issue, a mental health issue and creates real danger for real people.

Ukraine didn’t just figure in the election because of the bravery of women like Yuliia Bond. It also came up because of the recent conviction of former close ally of Nigel Farage, former Member of the European Parliament and UKIP and Brexit Party leader in the Senedd, Nathan Gill. Gill was convicted on several counts of taking bribes to advocate on behalf of the Russian government in the European Parliament. Farage tried to distance Reform from this by claiming that he was the only leading member of Reform who knew Gill but this was untrue. Richard Tice also knew him and  had publicly given him his support in the past.  And who had been employed by Gill? None other than Llŷr Powell, Reform candidate for the Senedd seat of Caerffili. To what extent revelations  about Gill’s criminal activities in support of Vladimir Putin had an effect on voting intentions is impossible to say but it is unlikely they had no impact. For Reform they certainly couldn’t have come at a worse time as yet again they were exposed in lie after lie as they tried to distance themselves from their previous leader in UKIP and the Brexit Party.

Local left activists built unity against Reform

Reform was defeated because most of the left, unlike Pat McFadden, understood that a victory for Reform would be a major defeat for the working class and worked together to ensure a victory for Plaid Cymru as the only party that could beat Reform. Unfortunately the Green Party ran their own candidate but the small number of votes received suggests they didn’t put much effort into their campaign. Stand Up To Racism put in huge amounts of work leafletting as much of the Constituency as possible and should be congratulated on their efforts which almost certainly contributed towards Lindsay Whittle’s victory. For the left the important issue was not Plaid’s support for increased military expenditure, nor its position on independence for Cymru but to defeat Reform in a seat they had targeted and put massive efforts into winning.

Do we need to challenge Plaid Cymru’s positions on Nato and military expenditure? Absolutely. Their record on environmental issues falls a long way short of what is required if we are to continue to exist on the earth. We need to challenge them on  these issues. We need to debate the issue of independence and what sort of society we would want an independent Cymru to be. But differences on these and no doubt many other issues shouldn’t get in the way of uniting to make sure Reform isn’t able to grow and that all those threatened by the far right are able to thrive.

Caerffili shows us the power of a united movement to defeat Reform, even when Reform has put in a massive effort to win, funded by their rich backers. We need to expand the lessons of Caerffili into every struggle against Reform and others on the far right. As the old, but still massively relevant slogan has it ‘United We Win, Divided We Fall’.